MLB for 4/18/17 | Bonehead Picks

MLB DFS 4/18/17

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The ups and downs of the DFS game have been quite evident for me over the last two weeks. At moments, I don’t think I can lose and then a second later I don’t think I can win. It is a roller coaster ride. Thankfully, I had two very nice hits with MLB and NHL that have made things good overall.  A small score in the NCAA tournament and small hits with the horses have also helped.

I try to stay even keel these days no matter whether I am winning or losing, but it is difficult. I am more of a chaser when I am down, not when I am up. I tend to hoard the money made and tread lightly as I move along daily. If I am not in love with a slate, I will pull back no matter how hot I am. This happened last week and I received some grief for it. In the long run, I think it was the right call. While it is true that I have been cold since I pulled back the last few days, I have preserved the winnings I had accumulated as I look for a good spot.

I have basically lost interest in the NBA and I am playing very light in the volatile NHL. This basically leaves golf which has not been fantastic, NASCAR which feels like playing roulette, MMA which is difficult to win outright with so little choices and a poor pricing set up, and the golden child MLB which I have yet to go at full force. Much has to do with the Kentucky Derby Trail which has ended and the impending trip to the WSOP where I need to have ample funds to compete. The Kentucky Derby is in 2 ½ weeks and I plan to lay out a few thousand over the two day extravaganza. The 7-8 events I have circled for the WSOP and Venetian Deepstacks in Las Vegas total $5K-$6K. I also have cash game needs which can get expensive if I go after the larger Stud 8/B games, plus another $2K in travel costs, so this is not the time to put a large amount at risk in DFS. While I should have a more positive, confident outlook, the University will be sending me their first bill in August for my daughter for the fall semester, so I need to be smart.

This gets us to tonight where we have the first full 15 game slate of the season. While I would love to put together 150 lineups and attack all the big money events, I will instead play one lineup and hope that it hits. What I have noticed the first two weeks of the season, is that my first lineup has been my best. Playing 10-20 more thru stacks and such have just been a drain on my bankroll. I think it is best to either attack in full force or go very small on lineups and play more contests.

I tried to get the day going with my pitching and Yu Darvish is the stud of the day in my opinion against Oakland. He has 36 K’s in 114 AB’s versus the A’s with a .211 average against. Scherzer was also a consideration, but I wanted some big bats and he is expensive against a team that has had his number in past seasons. I instead went with Luis Severino who has averaged 22.6 points on DraftKings in his first 2 starts and goes against a light hitting White Sox squad. Together they will cost me $17.2K and allow me to pay up for some of the huge HR potential that is out there today.

A few players I took had solid BVP numbers and the rest were gut feelings about 30+ point potential against their opponent. First, McCann is 23 for 68 with 8 HR’s and a .352 OBP against Nolasco. Enough said. Encarnacion is 15 for 45 with 1 HR and a .392 OBP against Hughes. Pedroia is 7 for 15 with a .500 OBP and Bogaerts is 8 for 17 with 1 HR against Stroman. Stanton is only 5 for 16 with 1 HR against Gallardo, but he has multiple home run potential. The same can be said for the last three selections Trumbo and Machado against Arroyo and Puig against the lefty Freeland. This lineup is a bit chalky, but 150 points is what I am looking for.  I like the two small mini-stacks and fully expect this to hit big.

This is my only play so far today. I do not plan on anything else, but you never know when lineups come out tonight. If I like something I will jump on it, especially in the single entry and low max-entry events. I am on twitter at @CHRISBOUCHARD88 for any questions, and I will post anything new I do before lineups lock at 7pm. Good Luck!!!

OPTIMAL LINEUP – DRAFT KINGS

P – Darvish $10,700

P – Severino $6,500

C – McCann $3,300

1B – Encarnacion $4,500

2B – Pedroia $3,600

3B – Machado $4,900

SS – Bogaerts $3,900

OF – Stanton $4,200

OF – Trumbo $4,600

OF – Puig $3,800

Total $50,000 (Remaining Salary $0)

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