Potential 2019 Fantasy Baseball DUDS | Bonehead Picks

Potential 2019 Fantasy Baseball DUDS

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Earlier this week, I went over some potential sleeper picks for your upcoming fantasy baseball drafts. Now, the focus shifts to some more popular names that may throw up a giant goose egg during the 2019 season or, not give you the value for their draft position (Willson Contreras was a perfect 2018 example) which ends up costing you from selecting a much better option.

 

Javier Baez (Chicago Cubs) – Yes, I am starting with the man who nearly won the National League MVP in 2018. Baez had an outstanding season, setting career highs in pretty much every offensive category. However, his numbers are not sustainable unless he becomes a more patient hitter. The alarming .326 OBP shows that if it weren’t for an outrageous .347 BABIP, he would not have had anywhere close to an MVP season. Baez will always be a solid player, but you should never expect a season like 2018 ever again.

Ryan Yarbrough and Blake Snell (Tampa Bay Rays) – The Tampa Bay Rays had a pretty remarkable 2018 season even without making the playoffs. Their introduction of the “opener” pitcher provided baseball with a potential look into the future and helped make Ryan Yarbrough a fantasy asset as he gobbled up wins while also having an overall good season. Due to the success of the openers, Blake Snell was able to blossom. Heck, you could even say Snell’s blossoming helped the Rays go all in with the opener idea due to the lack of needing bullpen arms on days Snell pitched. In 2019, I do expect both Snell and Yarbrough to be good, but nowhere near the success they had last year. Snell will be above a 3.00 ERA and Yarbrough may be lucky to pass 10 wins. Yarbrough you may be able to get in the later rounds, but Snell’s very high ranking should make you skip and go with a more proven arm like a Carlos Carrasco and end up paying less.

Adalberto Mondesi (Kansas City Royals) – Mondesi ended up being the goose that laid the golden egg for most teams that scooped him up late in the season once given consistent playing time. 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases in only 275 at-bats, Mondesi lit up Major League pitching and torched the basepaths. He will be a very hot pick due to Kansas City’s excessive running style. Thing to watch here is the fact he only had a .306 OBP. He could be another victim of a lack of patience. The steals will always be there, so that’s not a concern. Thing is, if he’s hitting .240 and has a .280 OBP, is he really helping your team outside of that one category? If he’s able to improve his plate discipline or be Javy Baez type lucky with a ridiculous BABIP, he will have another good season. Otherwise, you can get Jose Peraza or even Billy Hamilton for the steals and not waste a round six pick.

David Dahl (Colorado Rockies) – Dahl has been one of the up and coming players for the Rockies over the past few seasons. What always derails Dahl is his durability. He is currently ranked 93rd on Yahoo’s rankings, so an eight or ninth round pick? Dahl’s injury history combined with his .234 average against lefties AND .200 road average, he is nothing more than a plug and play outfielder. A plug and play is reserved for the later rounds.

Miles Mikolas (St. Louis Cardinals) – Mikolas’ 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP combined with 18 wins was pretty darn impressive last year. His emergence from baseball obscurity was one of the feel good stories for 2018. Mikolas makes this list because it’s not sustainable. His 117 overall rank in Yahoo isn’t exactly top shelf, but there are other options for you to go as a manager. There’s a lot of talent out there who can strike out much more than Mikolas and will probably end up with near similar win and era numbers. Mikolas will see that ERA jump to the 3.50 range and still end up winning around 12 or 13 games. There’s just so many better options you can take at this point of your draft. Zack Wheeler, Eduardo Rodriguez and Andrew Heaney are all better options.

Masahiro Tanaka (New York Yankees) – There’s just something that rubs me the wrong way when it comes to Japanese pitchers. Yu Darvish is slowly fading to obscurity. Tanaka has still been a solid pitcher, but that effectiveness window is closing. This might be the year it all starts to wind down for him. Then again, he may still have a few more good seasons in him. I wouldn’t want to be the one to chance it.

Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants) – Bumgarner at 106 in Yahoo’s overall rankings seems like a steal, right? Not really. Bumgarner last season after he came back from injury just wasn’t the same. Yes, he could have a revival to being one of the elite like Justin Verlander did, but Bumgarner’s body may not hold up. If he falls in your draft, I would still grab him since he is in a pitcher’s park. Just don’t rely on him to be your number two or three starter.

Max Muncy (Los Angeles Dodgers) – Muncy was one of the most surprising revelations last season. For those of you who took a shot on Muncy when he was getting hot (like I did), he helped you immensely in the power department. If your league had OBP instead of AVG, then his value was near off the charts, when he played. Muncy at 127 via Yahoo is a hard one to gage. Can he have another season like 2018? Even if not as good, does his three position eligibility warrant drafting him near projected? Instead of being that manager that pulls their hair out every day you throw Muncy out there and he’s on the bench because of the Dodgers’ depth, it’s just so much easier to skip him on draft day. If he plays well for another team, great. If not, the manager who takes him will most likely drop him and maybe you’ll grab him off of waivers during a hot streak. Muncy could easily have another 30 home run season, but there are just too many hurdles in regards to having the confidence to take him with a high pick.

 

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