The 2017 Kentucky Derby | Bonehead Picks

The 2017 Kentucky Derby

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This week started in fine fashion as I won the Keeneland Survive the Spring Contest for a huge score. Kentucky Oaks day was not as great Friday, but I am still live on a number of tickets going into Kentucky Derby Day. I will win the most money by far if STATE OF HONOR wins the Kentucky Derby, but now I also do very well if GIRVIN wins.



I always start the Kentucky Derby Trail in November as I place future wagers at the WYNN in Las Vegas. Nothing huge, but we always pick 10 horses at $10 each. This year only LOOKING AT LEE made the field as ROYAL MO was just on the outside looking in. In addition, there are four DERBY FUTURE WAGER pools early in the year. I participated in three of these and I have a number of live tickets. This is where I can make huge scores with STATE OF HONOR. In all, I have WIN and EXACT bets on many of the 20 contenders. Besides STATE OF HONOR, I have CLASSIC EMPIRE, UNTRAPPED, IRISH WAR CRY, ALWAYS DREAMING, MCCRACKEN, TAPWRITE, THUNDER SNOW, and BATTLE OF MIDWAY all in position for big scores if I hit the right combination. Many of these wagers include “ALL OTHER” bets where I have a number of horses together who were not individually part of the DERBY FUTURE POOL, but were instead part of the other grouping. My largest hit would come if the DERBY ends 6-5 with STATE OF HONOR over ALWAYS DREAMING which would pay over five figures. I love this six month process that always ends on the first Saturday of May.

In addition to the KENTUCKY DERBY, there are a number of top races on the entire CHURCHILL DOWNS race card. I give my top picks for each race below.

Race 6 – The $300,000 HUMANA DISTAFF – 7 FURLONGS

  1. #7 – CARINA MIA
  2. #5 – FINEST CITY
  3. #2 – PAULASSILVERLINING
  4. #6 – LIGHTSTREAM

Race 7 – The $300,000 CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE

  1. #6 – ROCA ROJO
  2. #1 – LINDA
  3. #2 – MISS TEMPLE CITY
  4. #7 – HARMONIZE

Race 8 – THE $250,000 PAT DAY MILE

  1. #9 – EXCITATIONS
  2. #1 – LOCAL HERO
  3. #4 – UNCONTESTED
  4. #5 – NO DOZING

Race 9 – THE $300,000 AMERICAN TURF – 1 1/16 MILES

  1. #5 – KITTEN’S CAT
  2. #4 – OSCAR PERFORMANCE
  3. #2 – BIG SCORE
  4. #11 – LA CORONEL

Race 10 – THE $500,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS – 7 FURLONGS

  1. #2 – MASOCHISTIC
  2. #1 – AWESOME SLEW
  3. #12 – DENMAN’S CALL
  4. #8 – EL KABEIR

Race 11 – THE $500,000 WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC – 1 1/8 MILES

  1. #7 – WORLD APPROVAL
  2. #8 – BEACH PATROL
  3. #1 – KASAQUI
  4. #12 – BALLAGH ROCKS

For the KENTUCKY DERBY, as with the other races, there is a difference between who you think will win and who you bet to win. I have touted STATE OF HONOR for a few weeks now, but that is because I win the most money if he wins. I have to root hard for him. While I think he will be in the top 3rd, I do not think he is the favorite. I will also make a number of wagers based on a horses’ value. A few of these in the KENTUCKY DERBY include # 2 THUNDER SNOW and #19 PRACTICAL JOKE. If their odds are very high, I will have to put some money on them.



I think #14 Classic Empire is the class of the race. Outside of the Holy Bull, he has been great in his last 4 races, and is coming off an inspiring performance in the Arkansas Derby. The 2 year old champion has won over $2.1M, winning 5 of 7 races.  This PIONEER OF THE NILE colt trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julien Leparoux should take home the crown. I think #17 IRISH WAR CRY will be just behind him followed a few lengths further back by #8 HENCE and #15 MCCRACKEN. I am wide awake here at 4am longing for the most exciting 2 minutes in sports. GOOD LUCK!!!

Race 12 – THE $2,000,000 KENTUCKY DERBY – 1 1/4 MILES

  1. #14 – CLASSIC EMPIRE
  2. #17 –IRISH WAR CRY
  3. #8 – HENCE
  4. #15 –MCCRACKEN
  5. #10 – GUNNEVERA

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